On the announcement of the Bharat Forecast System (BFS) as the official launch of the country’s premier high-resolution weather prediction system, India will now make a great leap forward in meteorological science.
BFS is backed by the technological excellence of the Arka Supercomputer, and this is India’s major achievement in climate resilience and scientific self-reliance.
ALSO READ- AMCA Programme: India’s Indigenous 5th Generation Fighter Jet
History of the Bharat Forecast System-
- This Forecast System is supported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) under the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).
- This was built on earlier generating models like the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Unified Model (UM), which formed the basis for frequent applications in the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
- Indigenous extreme weather events like cyclones, floods and heatwaves have been affecting India for aeons now. The need was for accurate, home-grown weather models.
- This system will be taking effect soon and will eliminate reliance on foreign systems, thereby ensuring self-sufficiency will be achieved in climate forecasting.
- This system was put in place to satisfy the increasing demands of high-resolution short and medium-range forecasts essential for agriculture, aviation, disaster management and urban planning.
How Does the Bharat Forecast System Work?
The BFS employments worldwide numerical climate forecast (NWP) models to recreate the atmosphere of the Soil employing complex scientific conditions.
- It partitions the climate and seas into little 3D networks (flat and vertical) and fathoms the liquid flow conditions at each lattice point.
- It enacts the most recent outlined show with real-time data obtained from satellites, climate stations, buoys, ships and planes.
- The runs are worked utilising the Arka Supercomputer, capable of executing billions of calculations each moment.
- BFS estimates temperature, wind, stickiness, precipitation, tornado tracks, sea conditions, etc., from hours up to weeks.
- It combines physics-based demonstration with information digestion approaches to correct and enhance forecasts.
Why Is It Called the World’s Highest Resolution Forecasting Model?
BFS is the best high-resolution global weather model operational today since it is capable of forecasting at a 6 km x 6 km spatial resolution. Also, it significantly improves upon IMD’s existing resolution of 12 km x 12 km.
Secondly, most of the across-the-world weather models including the US and UK models are typically in the range of 8-25 km resolution.
With such high resolution, BFS can:
- Record phenomena such as thunderstorms and mist in the local climate aspect.
- Better predict the distribution of rainfall within a space.
- Model better possibility for an urban microclimate and weather variations caused by topography.
- It works very effectively in a country like India with a very large and complex variety of terrains such as mountains, coastlines, deserts and forests.
Who Built the Bharat Forecast System?
The Bharat Forecast Framework was known and established by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune City. The victory and working of this BFS come under the aegis of the Service of Soil Sciences, i.e.MoES. It has been running on IITM’s progressed high-performance computing framework, the Arka Supercomputer.
Arka was as of late built up in 2023 and is one of the leading supercomputers in the world, committed to climate and climate modelling.
The advancement had worldwide cooperation from researchers and educators, even though the ultimate adaptation is indigenous.
Arka Supercomputer: The Brain Behind the Forecast-
- Arka, which means “Sun” in Sanskrit, is exceptionally powerful.
- high-performance computing system that delivers capacity of 11.77 Peta FLOPS and 33 petabytes of storage.
- It is meant for climate simulations, monsoon forecasts, air quality modelling, and extreme weather event prediction.
- Arka supports BFS running at ultra-high resolutions without sacrificing performance or accuracy.
- This supercomputer moreover lends its capacity to numerous research courses in oceanography, hydrology and seismic studies.
Limitations of the Bharat Forecast System-
Notwithstanding its victory, BFS has drawbacks:
- Data Holes: Mistakes may happen since not much observational information is accessible in farther districts such as the Himalayas and deep oceans.
- Computational Fetched: Running the show in tall determination requires tremendous computing assets and thus is costly.
- Accuracy of Short-Term Estimating: BFS does reasonably well in medium-range determining, but greatly short-term occasions (0-3 hours) still require specialised nowcasting systems.
- Dependence on Introductory Conditions: Blunders in information digestion may engender and influence the exactness of long-term forecasts.
- Human Asset Hole: There’s a need for prepared meteorologists and information researchers, which ruins the most extreme utilisation of the yield and its interpretation.
Applications of BFS Across Sectors-
- Agriculture: Aids farmers in making decision optimisations in irrigation, harvesting and pest control.
- Disaster Management: Strengthens early warning systems on cyclones, floods and heatwaves.
- Urban Planning: Helps manage pollution levels, heat islands and drainage planning.
- Aviation & Shipping: Provide data crucial for safe navigation in winds, visibility and turbulence.
- Defense & National Security: Weather intelligence for strategic planning and border surveillance.
Future Roadmap-
The BFS would get much more modern in operational terms with the expansion of AI/ML algorithms for proficiency changes on expectation measures. Currently, there’s an expansion of the observational framework for illustrating Doppler radars and sea buoys. Plans are being created to interface BFS with worldwide demonstration frameworks for worldwide collaborations. Future emphasis may permit personalised, versatile estimating apps in real-time.
Conclusion-
The Bharat Forecast System powered by Arka is more than just a scientific tool—it is a national asset. With its unmatched resolution and indigenous nature, BFS not only enables India to deal better with various climate change and natural disaster challenges but also represents India’s rise to become a global head in weather and climate forecasting.
FAQs-
BFS adds value to IMD’s forecasts and provides back-end data for their dissemination models.
BFS is meant for atmospheric-oceanic forecasting. Earthquake prediction requires different geophysical models.
BFS data is currently used by government agencies, but there are development efforts that will allow open-access platforms for the citizens.
Usually, forecasts are revised every 6 to 12 hours on the basis of their forecast type and scale.
BFS represents a self-reliant approach to strategic weather forecasting, diminishing the dependence on foreign models and empowering Indian institutions.